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What technologies will impact the way we do business in the not-too-distant future? Here, Daniel Burrus, a leading technology forecaster and author of Technotrends: How to Use Technology to Go Beyond Your Competition (HarperBusiness), predicts the top three technology trends for 1997--and reveals how they will affect your business.
1. The Second Internet
The current Internet gives users quick access to data and theability to send and receive e-mail, but it doesn't transmitaudio, video or extensive graphics very efficiently yet. Enter whatBurrus terms the "second" Internet, which will, onaverage, deliver information about 1,000 times faster than thecurrent Internet. Direct broadcast satellite, cable modems andbroad-band ISDN are just some of the emerging technologies thatwill handle the job, Burrus says.
As a result, CD-quality audio, high-quality graphics, 3-Dsimulations and virtual reality will all become possible."Smart" Web pages and, soon after, smart Web channels viacable and direct broadcast satellite will evolve to deliverinformation at warp speed.
It won't look like the Internet we know now, though."We're going to see these technologies," says Burrus,"but the consumer will hardly know they're there becausethey'll be sort of `behind the scenes.' "
Entrepreneurs on the Web who believe they have several years tobuild high-quality audio, video and graphics for their Web sitesare sadly mistaken, says Burrus. Now is the time to begindeveloping them if you want to be prepared for the coming changes,keep up with consumer expectations and remain on the cuttingedge.
2. Digital Video Disc (DVD)
"DVD is going to be very big," predicts Burrus."It's going to remain a high-tech platform with many useslimited only by the imagination."
The DVD player, due out this month, will run discs that containas much data as is normally held on 13 CD-ROMs and store hours ofhigh-quality audio, video and more. While it won't reach massmarkets until the end of next year, when content developers havereleased a substantial number of useful DVD discs, Burrus says the"entrepreneurial window is now open" for building newcontent and developing new products and services around DVD.
Also, expect content providers such as software developers andonline services to provide more proprietary information on DVD andthen send periodic updates though the Internet. That means a lot ofwork will be done offline, saving entrepreneurs money, time and thehassle of having their phone lines tied up, Burrus says. DVD isalso certain to revolutionize the way companies both offer andreceive training and support.
3. Desktop Videoconferencing
In the past, many small-business owners were turned off bydesktop videoconferencing because of its poor picture and soundquality--not to mention the exorbitant hardware prices. But nowthat prices are falling and the quality has vastly improved, youmay want to reconsider desktop videoconferencing.
"Entrepreneurs have to move from the information age intothe communication age," says Burrus. "We'reheightening the ability to communicate, and `high-tech' and`high-touch' now go together."
The new high-speed Internet will make desktop videoconferencingover the Internet both possible and affordable, says Burrus. Manycompanies will be able to conduct meetings, particularly withoverseas clients, and handle sales calls via desktopvideoconferencing--thus reducing their travel costs. Opportunitiesto improve companies' customer service by providingface-to-face relations also exist.
Contact Sources
Daniel Burrus, (800) 827-6770, http://www.burrus.com.
