The Only Constant <B></B>

It would be an understatement to say 2002 was a year ofuncertainty. But it's over, so let's look ahead. 2003 lookslike . . . well, at the moment it looks much the same as last year.But that's not going to stop us from trying to figure outwhat's next. Since that's not a task I want to tacklealone, we asked a few experts to share their insights.

Last year on this page, business consultant Elaine S. Peck (whoalso happens to be a professional psychic) and her colleague,Carroll Eileen, predicted that in 2002, "things will get worsebefore they get better." For 2003, they believe that while theeconomy will show signs of a slow (very slow) recovery, overall,our economic doldrums will continue. Money will remain hard to comeby for business owners, whether for start-up or expansion. Personaland business debt will soar.

Overall, they think many of us "will be ruled by fear"this year. While they see several major industries (like timber)suffering more than others, there is a bright spot on the businesshorizon: escapism. "Americans are in a runaway mood,"says Peck, and anything designed to help them escape will do wellin 2003. Entertainment-related businesses and products such as toyswill thrive. And they believe this will be a "fair" yearfor luxury goods and services. (For the scoop on how you can grabyour share of this market, make sure you read the May 2003 issue ofEntrepreneur.)

Personal finance gurus Ken and Daria Dolan, hosts of the wildlypopular syndicated radio show The Dolans, and authors of the newbook from Doubleday Don't Mess With My Money, reportthat the consensus among 25 CEOs at a recent lunch was"guarded optimism." The Dolans agree with thatassessment, with some caveats: "If interest rates remainsteady, as we believe they will, that bodes well for bothbusinesses and consumers, since it will help control costs forsmall businesses. We don't believe there will be a return todouble-digit increases in business spending, despite a moderategrowth in GDP (in the 2 to 2.5 percent range). We expect continuedweakness in the stock market as investor pessimism continues. Theone word overhanging all matters economic: uncertainty."

Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein is a bit moreoptimistic, predicting GDP growth of about 3.5 percent. But hecautions, "Don't look for a better stock market." AndMark Zandi, chief economist for Economy.com, believes the economywill "gain traction" as 2003 progresses. Zandi says thatwhile small businesses will continue to be tested (especially earlyin the year), they will fare "a bit better than largerbusinesses" because small businesses are less leveraged. Youcan read more from Goldstein, Zandi and other economic experts onour Web site at ugrpg.com/hotcenter.

Now for my predictions. In 2003, Entrepreneur is going tobring you even more of the information you need to grow yourbusiness-the smart way. We start, in this issue, by bringing youseveral new columns. Check out "Net Sales" (inMarketing), "Personal Finance" (found in Money),"Creative Zone" (in Management) and, in Tech, you'llfind "Solutions," which comes to you from the folks atCRN, one of the country's most well-respected technologytrade magazines.

For even more up-to-the-minute information, check us out on theWeb at ugrpg.com.

With this issue, Entrepreneur's circulation increasesto 550,000 a month (our readership remains around 2 millionmonthly). In fact, Capell's Circulation Report, thepremiere magazine circulation newsletter, just namedEntrepreneur one of the Top 20 "Best Performers inCirculation" over the past 20 years. We're in good companyhere-the list also includes such magazine giants asArchitectural Digest, Cosmopolitan, InStyle,People and Vanity Fair.

While we are so proud to be on this list, we know we owe it toyou, our readers. Our best way to thank you is to continue to bringyou the best magazine for small and midsized businesses, and wepromise to do exactly that in what we hope will be a happy,prosperous and peaceful 2003.